Unemployment continues to decline. Good news: The lower, the better you would say. But there is also something like insufficient unemployment, economists say.
Ton Wilthagen of Tilburg University and Rob Witjes of the UWV explain how that is and why 0% unemployment is not really 0%.
At the moment, 436,000 people are registered as unemployed. That is 4.8% of the working population, a nice figure.
It has also been different: at the beginning of 2014 unemployment was 7.9%.
What Is the Ideal?
But would it not be the most desired outcome for everyone to have work? No, says Wilthagen. It is not for nothing that companies are now worried about market tightness. They say they cannot find enough people.
‘Unemployed people need you because people need to be available for new jobs.’ For every vacancy, someone must be found that can fill it. This prevents the market from closing up.
Opinions differ on precisely how much is enough. According to Wilthagen, it is sufficient if 3% of the working population is out of work.
Witjes joins in, but thinks 4% to be more realistic. ‘Just before the crisis, we had 3.7. If we can that get back, the flag goes out.’
Is Everyone Happy Then?
No, say both economists. Not everyone who is unemployed will move on to a new job in the long run.
And there is another problem: for people not registered as unemployed, it does not mean they would not want to work anymore. That has to do with the definition.
Internationally agreed: if you work for 1 hour or more, you are no longer unemployed, Wilthagen explains. ‘But there are many people who want to work more, because they need money to do their groceries.’
At the moment there are 1.3 million people who want to work (more), CBS announces earlier this week. That is a much larger group than just the officially unemployed.
Wilthagen: ‘There are also all those who receive a benefit and would like to work in one way or another. Remember people who are in Wajong. They are not immediately available, so do not count as jobseekers.’
That means even zero percent unemployment does not mean there is no unemployment. There are still people in the Netherlands with insufficient work.
What Is Still Needed?
‘Training is the new recruitment,’ they say in America. In other words, ‘we must look at how we can better use the people we have,’ says Wilthagen.
If people have too few skills for a job, they should be given the opportunity to learn. So they are prepared. In this way, a large group of people currently in the margins would be eligible for a job, Wilthagen thinks.
As important as solving unemployment is, unemployment is preventable, Witjes believes. There are jobs that will disappear by automation or aging. For example, in two years, one in two adults will be 50 plus, he warns. For older people who lose their jobs, it is often harder to be reemployed. ‘Think of people who worked for their entire life at V&D (a former Dutch warehouse chain that recently declared bankruptcy). Then age will play a role in opportunities.’
Witjes joins Wilthagen, ‘If you want to get the ideal of 3% unemployment, you must invest heavily in education and training.’
Translated by Samir Rawas Sarayji
Source:
https://nos.nl/artikel/2188535-waarom-0-procent-werkloosheid-ook-niet-goed-is.html